Modesto CA vs Phoenix AZ — Cost of Living, Crime & Income Comparison 2026
Updated May 2026 · Source: US Census ACS 5-Year (2023), FBI CDE (2023), BLS OEWS (2024)
Modesto, CA
California · Population: 218,614
- Median HH Income$77,899
- Median Home Price$447,353
- Unemployment7.3%
- Bachelor's+20.3%
Phoenix, AZ
Arizona · Population: 1,624,832
- Median HH Income$77,041
- Median Home Price$411,323
- Unemployment5.1%
- Bachelor's+32.3%
Detailed Comparison
Demographics
Population
Modesto
218,614
Phoenix
1,624,832
Phoenix +
Pop. Density / sq mi
Lower = more space
Modesto
N/A
Phoenix
N/A
Median Age
Modesto
35.4
Phoenix
34.8
Phoenix +
Foreign Born
Modesto
18.7%
Phoenix
19.0%
Phoenix +
White
Modesto
50.8%
Phoenix
53.7%
Phoenix +
Black
Modesto
4.7%
Phoenix
7.8%
Phoenix +
Asian
Modesto
7.4%
Modesto +
Phoenix
3.9%
Hispanic
Modesto
43.9%
Modesto +
Phoenix
41.8%
Spanish at Home
Modesto
N/A
Phoenix
N/A
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Phoenix, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 218,614 | 1,624,832 | Phoenix + |
| Pop. Density / sq miLower = more space | N/A | N/A | - |
| Median Age | 35.4 | 34.8 | Phoenix + |
| Foreign Born | 18.7% | 19.0% | Phoenix + |
| White | 50.8% | 53.7% | Phoenix + |
| Black | 4.7% | 7.8% | Phoenix + |
| Asian | 7.4% | 3.9% | Modesto + |
| Hispanic | 43.9% | 41.8% | Modesto + |
| Spanish at Home | N/A | N/A | - |
Economy
Median HH Income
Modesto
$77,899
Modesto +
Phoenix
$77,041
Per Capita Income
Modesto
$34,656
Phoenix
$40,309
Phoenix +
Per Capita Personal Income (MSA)
BEA MSA-level
Modesto
$77,230
Modesto +
Phoenix
$59,120
Unemployment Rate
Modesto
7.3%
Phoenix
5.1%
Phoenix +
Poverty Rate
Modesto
13.0%
Modesto +
Phoenix
14.3%
Bachelor's Degree+
Modesto
20.3%
Phoenix
32.3%
Phoenix +
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Phoenix, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median HH Income | $77,899 | $77,041 | Modesto + |
| Per Capita Income | $34,656 | $40,309 | Phoenix + |
| Per Capita Personal Income (MSA)BEA MSA-level | $77,230 | $59,120 | Modesto + |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.3% | 5.1% | Phoenix + |
| Poverty Rate | 13.0% | 14.3% | Modesto + |
| Bachelor's Degree+ | 20.3% | 32.3% | Phoenix + |
Housing
Median Home Value
Zillow ZHVI / Census ACS
Modesto
$447,353
Phoenix
$411,323
Phoenix +
Homeownership Rate
Modesto
58.4%
Modesto +
Phoenix
57.1%
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Phoenix, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Home ValueZillow ZHVI / Census ACS | $447,353 | $411,323 | Phoenix + |
| Homeownership Rate | 58.4% | 57.1% | Modesto + |
Safety
Violent Crime / 100K
FBI CDE (state-level est.)
Modesto
503
Phoenix
450
Phoenix +
Property Crime / 100K
FBI CDE (state-level est.)
Modesto
2388
Phoenix
2150
Phoenix +
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Phoenix, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Violent Crime / 100KFBI CDE (state-level est.) | 503 | 450 | Phoenix + |
| Property Crime / 100KFBI CDE (state-level est.) | 2388 | 2150 | Phoenix + |
Health
Obesity Rate
CDC PLACES
Modesto
36.2%
Phoenix
32.3%
Phoenix +
Diabetes Rate
CDC PLACES
Modesto
12.1%
Phoenix
10.8%
Phoenix +
Poor Mental Health
CDC PLACES — 14+ days/month
Modesto
19.0%
Phoenix
16.2%
Phoenix +
No Health Insurance
CDC PLACES
Modesto
13.0%
Modesto +
Phoenix
17.3%
Binge Drinking
CDC PLACES
Modesto
16.5%
Phoenix
16.3%
Phoenix +
Current Smokers
CDC PLACES
Modesto
13.7%
Phoenix
12.2%
Phoenix +
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Phoenix, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Obesity RateCDC PLACES | 36.2% | 32.3% | Phoenix + |
| Diabetes RateCDC PLACES | 12.1% | 10.8% | Phoenix + |
| Poor Mental HealthCDC PLACES — 14+ days/month | 19.0% | 16.2% | Phoenix + |
| No Health InsuranceCDC PLACES | 13.0% | 17.3% | Modesto + |
| Binge DrinkingCDC PLACES | 16.5% | 16.3% | Phoenix + |
| Current SmokersCDC PLACES | 13.7% | 12.2% | Phoenix + |
Climate
Avg Annual Temp
NOAA 1991–2020 normal
Modesto
63.7°F
Modesto +
Phoenix
72.1°F
Annual Precipitation
NOAA 1991–2020 normal
Modesto
13.1 in
Phoenix
10.8 in
Phoenix +
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Phoenix, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Annual TempNOAA 1991–2020 normal | 63.7°F | 72.1°F | Modesto + |
| Annual PrecipitationNOAA 1991–2020 normal | 13.1 in | 10.8 in | Phoenix + |
Air Quality
PM2.5 Annual Avg
EPA AQS (state-level est.)
Modesto
7.9 µg/m³
Phoenix
7.1 µg/m³
Phoenix +
Good Air Days
AQI ≤ 50
Modesto
75.0%
Phoenix
75.0%
Tie
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Phoenix, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| PM2.5 Annual AvgEPA AQS (state-level est.) | 7.9 µg/m³ | 7.1 µg/m³ | Phoenix + |
| Good Air DaysAQI ≤ 50 | 75.0% | 75.0% | Tie |
Commute
Mean Commute Time
Census ACS
Modesto
30.5 min
Phoenix
27.7 min
Phoenix +
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Phoenix, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean Commute TimeCensus ACS | 30.5 min | 27.7 min | Phoenix + |
Which City is Right for You?
Modesto leads in median household income at $77,899, while phoenix offers more affordable housing with a median home price of $411,323. On public safety, Phoenix is safer with a violent crime rate of 450 per 100,000 residents, compared to 503 in Modesto. Phoenix has a lower unemployment rate at 5.1%, and Phoenix has cleaner air (PM2.5 avg 7.1 µg/m³). For overall health outcomes, Phoenix scores better with a lower obesity rate of 32.3%.
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