Modesto CA vs Surprise AZ — Cost of Living, Crime & Income Comparison 2026
Updated May 2026 · Source: US Census ACS 5-Year (2023), FBI CDE (2023), BLS OEWS (2024)
Modesto, CA
California · Population: 218,614
- Median HH Income$77,899
- Median Home Price$447,353
- Unemployment7.3%
- Bachelor's+20.3%
Surprise, AZ
Arizona · Population: 149,519
- Median HH Income$93,371
- Median Home Price$422,520
- Unemployment4.2%
- Bachelor's+31.0%
Detailed Comparison
Demographics
Population
Modesto
218,614
Modesto +
Surprise
149,519
Pop. Density / sq mi
Lower = more space
Modesto
N/A
Surprise
N/A
Median Age
Modesto
35.4
Modesto +
Surprise
41.6
Foreign Born
Modesto
18.7%
Modesto +
Surprise
6.8%
White
Modesto
50.8%
Surprise
75.0%
Surprise +
Black
Modesto
4.7%
Surprise
4.8%
Surprise +
Asian
Modesto
7.4%
Modesto +
Surprise
2.6%
Hispanic
Modesto
43.9%
Modesto +
Surprise
19.2%
Spanish at Home
Modesto
N/A
Surprise
N/A
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Surprise, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 218,614 | 149,519 | Modesto + |
| Pop. Density / sq miLower = more space | N/A | N/A | - |
| Median Age | 35.4 | 41.6 | Modesto + |
| Foreign Born | 18.7% | 6.8% | Modesto + |
| White | 50.8% | 75.0% | Surprise + |
| Black | 4.7% | 4.8% | Surprise + |
| Asian | 7.4% | 2.6% | Modesto + |
| Hispanic | 43.9% | 19.2% | Modesto + |
| Spanish at Home | N/A | N/A | - |
Economy
Median HH Income
Modesto
$77,899
Surprise
$93,371
Surprise +
Per Capita Income
Modesto
$34,656
Surprise
$39,604
Surprise +
Per Capita Personal Income (MSA)
BEA MSA-level
Modesto
$77,230
Modesto +
Surprise
$59,120
Unemployment Rate
Modesto
7.3%
Surprise
4.2%
Surprise +
Poverty Rate
Modesto
13.0%
Surprise
7.8%
Surprise +
Bachelor's Degree+
Modesto
20.3%
Surprise
31.0%
Surprise +
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Surprise, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median HH Income | $77,899 | $93,371 | Surprise + |
| Per Capita Income | $34,656 | $39,604 | Surprise + |
| Per Capita Personal Income (MSA)BEA MSA-level | $77,230 | $59,120 | Modesto + |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.3% | 4.2% | Surprise + |
| Poverty Rate | 13.0% | 7.8% | Surprise + |
| Bachelor's Degree+ | 20.3% | 31.0% | Surprise + |
Housing
Median Home Value
Zillow ZHVI / Census ACS
Modesto
$447,353
Surprise
$422,520
Surprise +
Homeownership Rate
Modesto
58.4%
Surprise
79.0%
Surprise +
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Surprise, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Home ValueZillow ZHVI / Census ACS | $447,353 | $422,520 | Surprise + |
| Homeownership Rate | 58.4% | 79.0% | Surprise + |
Safety
Violent Crime / 100K
FBI CDE (state-level est.)
Modesto
503
Surprise
450
Surprise +
Property Crime / 100K
FBI CDE (state-level est.)
Modesto
2388
Surprise
2150
Surprise +
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Surprise, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Violent Crime / 100KFBI CDE (state-level est.) | 503 | 450 | Surprise + |
| Property Crime / 100KFBI CDE (state-level est.) | 2388 | 2150 | Surprise + |
Health
Obesity Rate
CDC PLACES
Modesto
36.2%
Surprise
29.4%
Surprise +
Diabetes Rate
CDC PLACES
Modesto
12.1%
Surprise
11.2%
Surprise +
Poor Mental Health
CDC PLACES — 14+ days/month
Modesto
19.0%
Surprise
14.2%
Surprise +
No Health Insurance
CDC PLACES
Modesto
13.0%
Surprise
10.5%
Surprise +
Binge Drinking
CDC PLACES
Modesto
16.5%
Surprise
14.9%
Surprise +
Current Smokers
CDC PLACES
Modesto
13.7%
Surprise
10.4%
Surprise +
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Surprise, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Obesity RateCDC PLACES | 36.2% | 29.4% | Surprise + |
| Diabetes RateCDC PLACES | 12.1% | 11.2% | Surprise + |
| Poor Mental HealthCDC PLACES — 14+ days/month | 19.0% | 14.2% | Surprise + |
| No Health InsuranceCDC PLACES | 13.0% | 10.5% | Surprise + |
| Binge DrinkingCDC PLACES | 16.5% | 14.9% | Surprise + |
| Current SmokersCDC PLACES | 13.7% | 10.4% | Surprise + |
Climate
Avg Annual Temp
NOAA 1991–2020 normal
Modesto
63.7°F
Surprise
N/A
Annual Precipitation
NOAA 1991–2020 normal
Modesto
13.1 in
Surprise
N/A
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Surprise, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Annual TempNOAA 1991–2020 normal | 63.7°F | N/A | - |
| Annual PrecipitationNOAA 1991–2020 normal | 13.1 in | N/A | - |
Air Quality
PM2.5 Annual Avg
EPA AQS (state-level est.)
Modesto
7.9 µg/m³
Surprise
7.1 µg/m³
Surprise +
Good Air Days
AQI ≤ 50
Modesto
75.0%
Surprise
75.0%
Tie
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Surprise, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| PM2.5 Annual AvgEPA AQS (state-level est.) | 7.9 µg/m³ | 7.1 µg/m³ | Surprise + |
| Good Air DaysAQI ≤ 50 | 75.0% | 75.0% | Tie |
Commute
Mean Commute Time
Census ACS
Modesto
30.5 min
Modesto +
Surprise
32.8 min
| Metric | Modesto, CA | Surprise, AZ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean Commute TimeCensus ACS | 30.5 min | 32.8 min | Modesto + |
Which City is Right for You?
Surprise leads in median household income at $93,371, while surprise offers more affordable housing with a median home price of $422,520. On public safety, Surprise is safer with a violent crime rate of 450 per 100,000 residents, compared to 503 in Modesto. Surprise has a lower unemployment rate at 4.2%, and Surprise has cleaner air (PM2.5 avg 7.1 µg/m³). For overall health outcomes, Surprise scores better with a lower obesity rate of 29.4%.
Compare More Cities
Modesto, CA vs New York, NYLos Angeles, CA vs Modesto, CAChicago, IL vs Modesto, CAHouston, TX vs Modesto, CAModesto, CA vs Phoenix, AZModesto, CA vs Philadelphia, PA